Safe haven appeal has been seen emphasizing on the gold prices in the present week. Comex gold has made a high of 1362 in the week ended on 9th September, due to ongoing geopolitical tension coupled with weakling dollar. Gold prices which touched the low of 1046.20, during the 2015 December, the prices rose to the high 1366 during august of 2016, however, we saw a correction in the market and prices dropped to the level of 1123.90, since the prices has been surging for continuous 10 month and has rose to the level of 1362.65. Escalating tension between North Korea and US, weakening dollar index, this has been plunging since last year December from the high of 103.82 and is currently trading at level of 91.32.
Tracing the footsteps, of international counterpart, MCX also traded with positive sentiment during the week and surged to the high of 30475. However, prices may trade with slow undertone as in India jewellers see a sluggish demand due to ongoing inauspicious fortnight of ‘Shradh’.
MCX gold after plunging to the level of 29956, rose to the weekly high of 30471 against previous week of 29930, it made an evening star pattern in the late evening of the last trading day, and closed the day at 30280. If MCX gold closes the coming Monday in red region and COMEX gold begins the week with negative undertone, in that case, MCX gold can be seen to trade with weak undertone for the week.
COMEX gold has made shooting star pattern in daily chart, if yellow metal breaches the level of 1350.90, then it may come down to touch the level of 1338.20 in weekly trend.
Economic data’ to be kept in radar:
- USD PPI
- USD unemployment claims
Copper price which started surging from the 5th May of 2017, and touched the high of 451.30 in the week ended on 8th September. However, copper prices couldn’t sustain the level and plunge to touch the weekly low of 430.20 and breached its DMA of437.09 on daily chart, for the first time in past 17 days, despite higher import of unwrought cotton by china. AS per the official reports from China, country has imported unwrought copper totalled 390,000 tonnes last month, up by 11.4% from 350,000 tonnes a year ago. However the import of first 8 month, showed a decline of 12%. Prices fell tracing Shanghai future exchange, where copper prices fell by almost 2% to51,260 Yuan per tonne, as traders were seen booking their profits in their night trading session
Higher LME inventories that stood at a level of 213715 tonnes up by 2450 tonnes pushed the prices lower.
However, BMI research has raised it forecast for the red metal to $6000 per tonne from previous forecast of $5500, with an expectation of an average price of $7000, due to stronger demand, which may support the prices at present.
Key data to be kept in radar:
- USD core retail Sales
- USD retail sales
- USD Core CPI
- China Industrial Production
- US industrial production
MCX Copper: MCX copper is trading below 10 DMA of Rs439.27, it looks bearish in weekly chart and it if sustains below its crucial support level of 439.27, it it may further plunge to the level of 415.50 in the coming week.
MCX ZINC::MCX zinc has made double top pattern in weekly chart and it is trading at the level of 194.10, it may slip to the level of 184.10 in coming week .Other reason for coming down , as it is already trading below 10 DMA, which is 198.90, this is acting as one more confirmation of selling tune.
Dollar index , which is value of dollar against basket of six major currencies, which includes euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.. Dollar index, which touched the weekly low of 91.02, rebounded to settle at 91.32, but the undertone remained tepid on concern over the impact of Hurricane Irma on the Florida coast and tensions with North Korea weighed heavily on the greenback. Further pushing the dollar index down is the appearance of dwindles that federal reserve will hike its federal funds target rate in the later month of the year. Further fear of debt ceiling also pushed the prices down the lane. We see index to be trading with red momentum, however, traders are expected to remain cautious and wait for fed result and other US economic numbers, which will release in the coming week.
Economic numbers to have eye on:-
- US unemployment claims
- US core CPI
- GBP official bank rate
Dollar Index::Dollar index has made “hammer pattern” in daily chart, if dollar index, on the coming Monday i.e 11th September, closes in the green zone , then it may go up to touch the level of 92.10 in short trend.
Crude oil price over NYMEX traded with positive momentum during the early weeks, but plunged down to the level of $47.48 by the end of the week on higher inventories. However, if we look at the weekly performance, prices continued to plunge for 5 consecutive weeks, and for the week ended on 8th September, though prices rose to the level of $49.41, but it couldn’t sustain the level and plunge to the low of $47.55. As EIA’s report, supply exceeds demand is recorded at lowest level since April 2004, at -625000barrels per day. Total export from major oil producing economy “U.S” has collapsed due to hurricane hits. This resulted in bulging inventories. As per latest EIA report, crude oil inventories level at 462.4 million barrels up by 4.6 million barrels from last week.US crude oil refinery inputs also averaged at 14.5 million barrels per week, which is low by 3.3 million barrels per day less than previous week’s average.
Further making the crude prices hit rock bottom on concern over lower demand from Florida and the Southeast would hit hard as Hurricane Irma, powerful storms in a century, drove toward the region. As hurricane Harvey, had already shut a quarter of U.S. refineries and 8 percent of U.S. oil production.
Prices continued to be seen under pressure, as US oil rig counts continued to fall, as US oil rig count stands at a level of 944 rings down by 3 this week. Prices may continue its sluggish undertone as further.
Crude::MCX crude is trading at 3041 , and is trading above the down trend line, if crude crosses the level of 3099,then it may go up to touch the level of 3318 , in very short trend.
If crude oil sustains below the level of 3000, as we see a major support of 10DMA at 3000, if its breaches the stated level, then it may plunge to the level of 2713 in long trend.